Declan Osborne v Paul Squirrell (Thu 25 Nov 2010)
Match won by Paul Squirrell. Result: 16-18,8-15,15-6,11-15.
Starting level for
Declan Osborne:
1,947, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for
Paul Squirrell:
2,094, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Paul Squirrell to win as he is currently playing
8% better than Declan Osborne.
Paul Squirrell won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Squirrell played
19% better than Declan Osborne in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Squirrell actually played at a level of
2,206 and Declan Osborne at a level of
1,848. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Squirrell changes to +5% and Declan Osborne changes to -5.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Squirrell becomes +3% and for Declan Osborne becomes -3.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Paul Squirrell is +2.2% and for Declan Osborne is -2.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Squirrell: 85%, Declan Osborne: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Squirrell: 81%, Declan Osborne: 79%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Declan Osborne:
1,899, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Paul Squirrell:
2,138, level confidence: 81%.