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John Donald v John Chesters (Thu 25 Nov 2010)

Match won by John Chesters. Result: 15-8,18-20,15-8,8-15,13-15.

Starting level for John Donald: 1,398, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for John Chesters: 1,079, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
John Donald to win as he is currently playing 30% better than John Chesters.

John Chesters won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Chesters played 6% better than John Donald in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John Chesters actually played at a level of 1,267 and John Donald at a level of 1,191. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Chesters changes to +15% and John Donald changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Chesters becomes +8.6% and for John Donald becomes -7.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for John Chesters is +6.5% and for John Donald is -5.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Chesters: 87%, John Donald: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Chesters: 74%, John Donald: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for John Donald: 1,329, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for John Chesters: 1,147, level confidence: 74%.