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Richard Carr v Mark Oppen (Tue 11 Jun 2013)

Match won by Richard Carr. Result: 13-15,15-8,15-5,15-6.

Starting level for Richard Carr: 2,657, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Oppen: 1,749, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Richard Carr to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Mark Oppen.

Richard Carr won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 71% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Carr played 40% better than Mark Oppen in this match.

In this case, Richard Carr played at level 2,485 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Richard Carr would normally have been playing at level 2,522 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Oppen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Carr changes to 0% and Mark Oppen changes to +1.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Carr becomes 0% and for Mark Oppen becomes +0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Richard Carr is 0% and for Mark Oppen is +0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Carr: 87%, Mark Oppen: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Carr: 83%, Mark Oppen: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richard Carr: 2,653, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Mark Oppen: 1,756, level confidence: 87%.