Dan Soar v Fred Cooke (Thu 25 Nov 2010)
Match won by Dan Soar. Result: 19-17,16-14,15-10.
Starting level for
Dan Soar:
3,043, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Fred Cooke:
2,166, level confidence: 60%.
Dan Soar to win as he is currently playing
40% better than Fred Cooke.
Dan Soar won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan Soar played
33% better than Fred Cooke in this match.
In this case, Dan Soar played at level 2,906 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Dan Soar would normally have been playing at level 2,935 (based on typical behaviour), Fred Cooke played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan Soar changes to 0% and Fred Cooke changes to +0.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan Soar becomes 0% and for Fred Cooke becomes +0.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Dan Soar is 0% and for Fred Cooke is +0.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan Soar: 89%, Fred Cooke: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan Soar: 87%, Fred Cooke: 75%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Dan Soar:
3,038, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Fred Cooke:
2,173, level confidence: 75%.