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Chris Dormon v Dan Easton (Thu 25 Nov 2010)

Match won by Dan Easton. Result: 14-16,13-15,16-14,15-17.

Starting level for Chris Dormon: 1,627, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for Dan Easton: 1,680, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Dan Easton to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Chris Dormon.

Dan Easton won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan Easton played 19% better than Chris Dormon in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dan Easton actually played at a level of 1,804 and Chris Dormon at a level of 1,515. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan Easton changes to +3.5% and Chris Dormon changes to -7.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan Easton becomes +2.7% and for Chris Dormon becomes -4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Dan Easton is +2% and for Chris Dormon is -3.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan Easton: 95%, Chris Dormon: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan Easton: 88%, Chris Dormon: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Dormon: 1,575, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Dan Easton: 1,711, level confidence: 88%.