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Nick Cooper v Gavin Bone (Tue 11 Jun 2013)

Match won by Nick Cooper. Result: 15-11,15-12,16-14.

Starting level for Nick Cooper: 826, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Gavin Bone: 1,269, level confidence: 66%.
Gavin Bone to win as he is currently playing 54% better than Nick Cooper.

Nick Cooper won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Cooper played 34% better than Gavin Bone in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Cooper actually played at a level of 1,187 and Gavin Bone at a level of 883. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 44% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 34% and 34% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Cooper changes to +34% and Gavin Bone changes to -32%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Cooper becomes +17.5% and for Gavin Bone becomes -15%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Nick Cooper is +11% and for Gavin Bone is -9.3%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nick Cooper is limited to +10% and Gavin Bone is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Cooper: 80%, Gavin Bone: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Cooper: 56%, Gavin Bone: 57%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Cooper: 907, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Gavin Bone: 1,207, level confidence: 57%.