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Rob Carroll v Nigel Rix (Wed 12 Jun 2013)

Match won by Rob Carroll. Result: 15-7,14-16,15-6,9-15,15-12.

Starting level for Rob Carroll: 1,382, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nigel Rix: 1,075, level confidence: 64%.
Rob Carroll to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Nigel Rix.

Rob Carroll won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Carroll played 13% better than Nigel Rix in this match.

As Rob Carroll has played below his allowed range at 1,264, his level reduction is 4.2% before damping. On the assumption that Rob Carroll would normally have been playing at level 1,354 (based on typical behaviour), Nigel Rix played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.7% and 4.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Carroll changes to -2.8% and Nigel Rix changes to +4.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Carroll becomes -2.5% and for Nigel Rix becomes +3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Rob Carroll is -1.6% and for Nigel Rix is +2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Carroll: 90%, Nigel Rix: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Carroll: 85%, Nigel Rix: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rob Carroll: 1,358, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Nigel Rix: 1,100, level confidence: 75%.