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James Clyne v Chris Lynam (Tue 30 Nov 2010)

Match won by James Clyne. Result: 16-14,15-11,15-7.

Starting level for James Clyne: 2,340, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Chris Lynam: 2,336, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
James Clyne to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Chris Lynam.

James Clyne won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Clyne played 47% better than Chris Lynam in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Clyne actually played at a level of 2,839 and Chris Lynam at a level of 1,925. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Clyne changes to +21% and Chris Lynam changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Clyne becomes +8.5% and for Chris Lynam becomes -6.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for James Clyne is +6.4% and for Chris Lynam is -5.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Clyne: 77%, Chris Lynam: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Clyne: 63%, Chris Lynam: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Clyne: 2,485, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Chris Lynam: 2,221, level confidence: 71%.