John Chesters v Anthony Clifford (Wed 12 Jun 2013)
Match won by John Chesters. Result: 15-9,16-14,13-15,9-15,15-10.
Starting level for
John Chesters:
1,089, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Anthony Clifford:
1,281, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Anthony Clifford to win as he is currently playing
18% better than John Chesters.
John Chesters won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Chesters played
9% better than Anthony Clifford in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John Chesters actually played at a level of
1,236 and Anthony Clifford at a level of
1,129. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Chesters changes to +12% and Anthony Clifford changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Chesters becomes +7% and for Anthony Clifford becomes -6.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for John Chesters is +4.6% and for Anthony Clifford is -4.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Chesters: 89%, Anthony Clifford: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Chesters: 79%, Anthony Clifford: 77%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for John Chesters:
1,137, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Anthony Clifford:
1,226, level confidence: 77%.