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Johnny McElligott v Carl Noffki (Tue 30 Nov 2010)

Match won by Carl Noffki. Result: 12-15,13-15,15-0,11-15.

Starting level for Johnny McElligott: 879, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Carl Noffki: 1,019, level confidence: 64%.
Carl Noffki to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Johnny McElligott.

Carl Noffki won 75% of the games and 47% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Carl Noffki played 13% better than Johnny McElligott in this match.

As Carl Noffki has played below his allowed range at 999, his level reduction is 0.7% before damping. On the assumption that Carl Noffki would normally have been playing at level 1,013 (based on typical behaviour), Johnny McElligott played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.1%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Carl Noffki changes to -0.5% and Johnny McElligott changes to +1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Carl Noffki becomes -0.5% and for Johnny McElligott becomes +1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Carl Noffki is -0.4% and for Johnny McElligott is +0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Carl Noffki: 80%, Johnny McElligott: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Carl Noffki: 79%, Johnny McElligott: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Johnny McElligott: 884, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Carl Noffki: 1,014, level confidence: 79%.