Keith Timms v Jonathan Maloney (Thu 13 Jun 2013)
Match won by Jonathan Maloney. Result: 2-11,9-11,11-7,11-6,10-12.
Starting level for
Keith Timms:
6,217, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for
Jonathan Maloney:
5,444, level confidence: 69%.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing
14% better than Jonathan Maloney.
Jonathan Maloney won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jonathan Maloney played
10% better than Keith Timms in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jonathan Maloney actually played at a level of
6,097 and Keith Timms at a level of
5,551. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jonathan Maloney changes to +11% and Keith Timms changes to -11%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jonathan Maloney becomes +4% and for Keith Timms becomes -3.8%.
Given Jonathan Maloney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.5% has been applied to his level change.
Given Keith Timms's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.3% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Jonathan Maloney is +2.5% and for Keith Timms is -2.2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jonathan Maloney: 83%, Keith Timms: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jonathan Maloney: 74%, Keith Timms: 75%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Keith Timms:
6,071, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Jonathan Maloney:
5,572, level confidence: 74%.