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Hugh Adams v Tony Revell (Tue 30 Nov 2010)

Match won by Hugh Adams. Result: 16-18,15-10,15-11,8-15,15-7.

Starting level for Hugh Adams: 988, level confidence: 23%.
Starting level for Tony Revell: 952, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Hugh Adams to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Tony Revell.

Hugh Adams won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hugh Adams played 11% better than Tony Revell in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hugh Adams actually played at a level of 1,021 and Tony Revell at a level of 921. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hugh Adams changes to +3.3% and Tony Revell changes to -1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hugh Adams becomes +3.1% and for Tony Revell becomes -1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Hugh Adams is +2.3% and for Tony Revell is -0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hugh Adams: 48%, Tony Revell: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hugh Adams: 46%, Tony Revell: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hugh Adams: 1,010, level confidence: 46%.
Final level for Tony Revell: 944, level confidence: 83%.