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Stuart Kousoulou v Andrew Taylor (Thu 13 Jun 2013)

Match won by Andrew Taylor. Result: 3-11,10-12,9-11.

Starting level for Stuart Kousoulou: 1,907, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Andrew Taylor: 3,360, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Andrew Taylor to win as he is currently playing 76% better than Stuart Kousoulou.

Andrew Taylor won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew Taylor played 55% better than Stuart Kousoulou in this match.

In this case, Andrew Taylor played at level 3,010 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Andrew Taylor would normally have been playing at level 3,072 (based on typical behaviour), Stuart Kousoulou played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Taylor changes to 0% and Stuart Kousoulou changes to +1.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Taylor becomes 0% and for Stuart Kousoulou becomes +1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Andrew Taylor is 0% and for Stuart Kousoulou is +0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Taylor: 88%, Stuart Kousoulou: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Taylor: 82%, Stuart Kousoulou: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stuart Kousoulou: 1,919, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Andrew Taylor: 3,355, level confidence: 82%.