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Phil Jenkins v Tom Lo (Tue 18 Jun 2013)

Match won by Tom Lo. Result: 4-15,8-15,5-15.

Starting level for Phil Jenkins: 1,768, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom Lo: 2,569, level confidence: 53%.
Tom Lo to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Phil Jenkins.

Tom Lo won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 165% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Lo played 165% better than Phil Jenkins in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Lo actually played at a level of 3,467 and Phil Jenkins at a level of 1,310. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 35% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Lo changes to +28% and Phil Jenkins changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Lo becomes +10.4% and for Phil Jenkins becomes -8.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Tom Lo is +6.7% and for Phil Jenkins is -5.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Lo: 73%, Phil Jenkins: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Lo: 54%, Phil Jenkins: 64%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Phil Jenkins: 1,721, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Tom Lo: 2,738, level confidence: 54%.