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Kevin Springham v Paul Green (Tue 30 Nov 2010)

Match won by Kevin Springham. Result: 16-14,8-15,12-15,15-12,15-7.

Starting level for Kevin Springham: 1,874, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Green: 1,860, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Kevin Springham to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Paul Green.

Kevin Springham won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kevin Springham played 9% better than Paul Green in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Kevin Springham actually played at a level of 1,946 and Paul Green at a level of 1,791. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kevin Springham changes to +3.8% and Paul Green changes to -3.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kevin Springham becomes +2.7% and for Paul Green becomes -2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Kevin Springham is +2% and for Paul Green is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kevin Springham: 88%, Paul Green: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kevin Springham: 85%, Paul Green: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Kevin Springham: 1,909, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Paul Green: 1,821, level confidence: 86%.