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Mark Oppen v Stephen Lloyd (Tue 18 Jun 2013)

Match won by Stephen Lloyd. Result: 4-15,5-15,11-15.

Starting level for Mark Oppen: 1,756, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Stephen Lloyd: 2,872, level confidence: 65%.
Stephen Lloyd to win as he is currently playing 64% better than Mark Oppen.

Stephen Lloyd won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 125% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stephen Lloyd played 125% better than Mark Oppen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stephen Lloyd actually played at a level of 3,369 and Mark Oppen at a level of 1,497. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stephen Lloyd changes to +13% and Mark Oppen changes to -9.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stephen Lloyd becomes +5.4% and for Mark Oppen becomes -5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Stephen Lloyd is +3.5% and for Mark Oppen is -3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stephen Lloyd: 81%, Mark Oppen: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stephen Lloyd: 69%, Mark Oppen: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Oppen: 1,698, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Stephen Lloyd: 2,969, level confidence: 69%.