SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Ian Collin v Paul Starkey (Wed 19 Jun 2013)

Match won by Ian Collin. Result: 15-10,15-11,15-10.

Starting level for Ian Collin: 1,672, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Paul Starkey: 1,371, level confidence: 53%.
Ian Collin to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Paul Starkey.

Ian Collin won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Collin played 48% better than Paul Starkey in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ian Collin actually played at a level of 1,844 and Paul Starkey at a level of 1,243. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Collin changes to +7.5% and Paul Starkey changes to -9.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Collin becomes +4.3% and for Paul Starkey becomes -5.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Ian Collin is +2.8% and for Paul Starkey is -3.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Collin: 81%, Paul Starkey: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Collin: 73%, Paul Starkey: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ian Collin: 1,716, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Paul Starkey: 1,323, level confidence: 66%.