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Dennis Arthur v Mark Oppen (Tue 25 Jun 2013)

Match won by Mark Oppen. Result: 9-15,15-8,13-15,14-16.

Starting level for Dennis Arthur: 2,094, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Oppen: 1,697, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Dennis Arthur to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Mark Oppen.

Mark Oppen won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Oppen played 19% better than Dennis Arthur in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Oppen actually played at a level of 2,054 and Dennis Arthur at a level of 1,730. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Oppen changes to +18% and Dennis Arthur changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Oppen becomes +8.4% and for Dennis Arthur becomes -8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Mark Oppen is +5.5% and for Dennis Arthur is -5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Oppen: 87%, Dennis Arthur: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Oppen: 72%, Dennis Arthur: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dennis Arthur: 1,991, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Mark Oppen: 1,787, level confidence: 72%.