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Michael Broadbent v Rob McGuchan (Tue 25 Jun 2013)

Match won by Rob McGuchan. Result: 11-15,14-16,8-15.

Starting level for Michael Broadbent: 1,132, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rob McGuchan: 1,590, level confidence: 62%.
Rob McGuchan to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Michael Broadbent.

Rob McGuchan won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob McGuchan played 45% better than Michael Broadbent in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob McGuchan actually played at a level of 1,613 and Michael Broadbent at a level of 1,116. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.2% and 1.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob McGuchan changes to +1.2% and Michael Broadbent changes to -1.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob McGuchan becomes +1% and for Michael Broadbent becomes -1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Rob McGuchan is +0.7% and for Michael Broadbent is -0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob McGuchan: 79%, Michael Broadbent: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob McGuchan: 78%, Michael Broadbent: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael Broadbent: 1,123, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Rob McGuchan: 1,598, level confidence: 78%.