Richard Carr v Dave Rawlings (Tue 25 Jun 2013)
Match won by Richard Carr. Result: 15-13,15-12,15-8.
Starting level for
Richard Carr:
2,643, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Dave Rawlings:
2,057, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Richard Carr to win as he is currently playing
28% better than Dave Rawlings.
Richard Carr won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Carr played
43% better than Dave Rawlings in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard Carr actually played at a level of
2,784 and Dave Rawlings at a level of
1,953. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.3% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.7% and 4.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Carr changes to +4.6% and Dave Rawlings changes to -4.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Carr becomes +2.7% and for Dave Rawlings becomes -2.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Richard Carr is +1.7% and for Dave Rawlings is -1.9%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Carr: 92%, Dave Rawlings: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Carr: 87%, Dave Rawlings: 87%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Richard Carr:
2,685, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Dave Rawlings:
2,016, level confidence: 87%.