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Paul Hunt v Dan Easton (Tue 25 Jun 2013)

Match won by Dan Easton. Result: 13-15,10-15,5-15.

Starting level for Paul Hunt: 1,749, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dan Easton: 2,162, level confidence: 60%.
Dan Easton to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Paul Hunt.

Dan Easton won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan Easton played 61% better than Paul Hunt in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dan Easton actually played at a level of 2,465 and Paul Hunt at a level of 1,534. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan Easton changes to +13% and Paul Hunt changes to -10.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan Easton becomes +5.7% and for Paul Hunt becomes -5.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Dan Easton is +3.7% and for Paul Hunt is -3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan Easton: 77%, Paul Hunt: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan Easton: 68%, Paul Hunt: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Hunt: 1,690, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Dan Easton: 2,239, level confidence: 68%.