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Simon Hancock v Tim Webster (Wed 01 Dec 2010)

Match won by Simon Hancock. Result: 17-15,11-15,8-15,15-10,17-15.

Starting level for Simon Hancock: 1,369, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tim Webster: 1,262, level confidence: 60%.
Simon Hancock to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Tim Webster.

Simon Hancock won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Hancock played 7% better than Tim Webster in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Hancock actually played at a level of 1,358 and Tim Webster at a level of 1,272. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Hancock changes to -0.6% and Tim Webster changes to +0.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Hancock becomes -0.6% and for Tim Webster becomes +0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Simon Hancock is -0.4% and for Tim Webster is +0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Hancock: 85%, Tim Webster: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Hancock: 84%, Tim Webster: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Hancock: 1,361, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Tim Webster: 1,267, level confidence: 77%.