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Craig Perry v Paul Vukovich (Wed 01 Dec 2010)

Match won by Paul Vukovich. Result: 15-11,15-13,7-15,5-15,9-15.

Starting level for Craig Perry: 1,228, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Paul Vukovich: 1,627, level confidence: 56%.
Paul Vukovich to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Craig Perry.

Paul Vukovich won 60% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Vukovich played 16% better than Craig Perry in this match.

As Paul Vukovich has played below his allowed range at 1,481, his level reduction is 3.7% before damping. On the assumption that Paul Vukovich would normally have been playing at level 1,586 (based on typical behaviour), Craig Perry played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.2% and 4.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Vukovich changes to -3.2% and Craig Perry changes to +4.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Vukovich becomes -2.6% and for Craig Perry becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Paul Vukovich is -1.9% and for Craig Perry is +2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Vukovich: 75%, Craig Perry: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Vukovich: 70%, Craig Perry: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Craig Perry: 1,257, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Paul Vukovich: 1,594, level confidence: 70%.