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Cesar Ramirez-Molina v Brad Whitbread (Thu 02 Dec 2010)

Match won by Brad Whitbread. Result: 15-9,12-15,6-15,15-10,5-15.

Starting level for Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 1,361, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Brad Whitbread: 1,229, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Cesar Ramirez-Molina to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Brad Whitbread.

Brad Whitbread won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Brad Whitbread played 13% better than Cesar Ramirez-Molina in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Brad Whitbread actually played at a level of 1,373 and Cesar Ramirez-Molina at a level of 1,218. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Brad Whitbread changes to +11.1% and Cesar Ramirez-Molina changes to -10.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Brad Whitbread becomes +6.4% and for Cesar Ramirez-Molina becomes -6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Brad Whitbread is +4.8% and for Cesar Ramirez-Molina is -4.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Brad Whitbread: 84%, Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Brad Whitbread: 75%, Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 1,301, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Brad Whitbread: 1,286, level confidence: 75%.