Gavin Bone v Mike Byrne (Thu 02 Dec 2010)
Match won by Mike Byrne. Result: 13-15,10-15,11-15.
Starting level for
Gavin Bone:
904, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mike Byrne:
1,233, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Mike Byrne to win as he is currently playing
36% better than Gavin Bone.
Mike Byrne won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Byrne played
40% better than Gavin Bone in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Byrne actually played at a level of
1,248 and Gavin Bone at a level of
893. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.3% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.1% and 1.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Byrne changes to +0.9% and Gavin Bone changes to -1.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Byrne becomes +0.9% and for Gavin Bone becomes -1.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Mike Byrne is +0.6% and for Gavin Bone is -0.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Byrne: 91%, Gavin Bone: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Byrne: 90%, Gavin Bone: 85%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Gavin Bone:
895, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Mike Byrne:
1,239, level confidence: 90%.