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Simon Rigby v Peter Iszatt (Thu 02 Dec 2010)

Match won by Peter Iszatt. Result: 11-15,8-15,15-13,7-15.

Starting level for Simon Rigby: 1,056, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Peter Iszatt: 1,100, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Peter Iszatt to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Simon Rigby.

Peter Iszatt won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Iszatt played 30% better than Simon Rigby in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Iszatt actually played at a level of 1,231 and Simon Rigby at a level of 944. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Iszatt changes to +10.2% and Simon Rigby changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Iszatt becomes +6.3% and for Simon Rigby becomes -7.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Peter Iszatt is +4.7% and for Simon Rigby is -5.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Iszatt: 84%, Simon Rigby: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Iszatt: 75%, Simon Rigby: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Rigby: 1,004, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Peter Iszatt: 1,150, level confidence: 75%.