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Ian Collin v Steve Currie (Thu 02 Dec 2010)

Match won by Ian Collin. Result: 15-9,15-13,19-17.

Starting level for Ian Collin: 2,089, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Steve Currie: 1,397, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Ian Collin to win as he is currently playing 50% better than Steve Currie.

Ian Collin won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Collin played 35% better than Steve Currie in this match.

In this case, Ian Collin played at level 1,939 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Ian Collin would normally have been playing at level 1,990 (based on typical behaviour), Steve Currie played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Collin changes to 0% and Steve Currie changes to +2.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Collin becomes 0% and for Steve Currie becomes +1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Ian Collin is 0% and for Steve Currie is +1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Collin: 87%, Steve Currie: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Collin: 83%, Steve Currie: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ian Collin: 2,086, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Steve Currie: 1,414, level confidence: 81%.