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Chris Patten v Chris Roper (Thu 02 Dec 2010)

Match won by Chris Patten. Result: 7-15,5-15,15-9,15-13,15-6.

Starting level for Chris Patten: 1,846, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Roper: 1,269, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Chris Patten to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Chris Roper.

Chris Patten won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Patten played 7% better than Chris Roper in this match.

As Chris Patten has played below his allowed range at 1,509, his level reduction is 11% before damping. On the assumption that Chris Patten would normally have been playing at level 1,768 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Roper played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.1% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Patten changes to -8.1% and Chris Roper changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Patten becomes -4.4% and for Chris Roper becomes +6.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Chris Patten is -3.3% and for Chris Roper is +4.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Patten: 89%, Chris Roper: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Patten: 77%, Chris Roper: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Patten: 1,785, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Chris Roper: 1,329, level confidence: 73%.