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Graham Higgins v Sid Newbon (Wed 26 Jun 2013)

Match won by Graham Higgins. Result: 15-9,15-12,16-18,15-8.

Starting level for Graham Higgins: 1,246, level confidence: 43%.
Starting level for Sid Newbon: 1,171, level confidence: 55%.
Graham Higgins to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Sid Newbon.

Graham Higgins won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Graham Higgins played 27% better than Sid Newbon in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Graham Higgins actually played at a level of 1,359 and Sid Newbon at a level of 1,074. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Graham Higgins changes to +8.8% and Sid Newbon changes to -6.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Graham Higgins becomes +5.3% and for Sid Newbon becomes -4.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Graham Higgins is +3.5% and for Sid Newbon is -3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Graham Higgins: 66%, Sid Newbon: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Graham Higgins: 60%, Sid Newbon: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Graham Higgins: 1,287, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Sid Newbon: 1,136, level confidence: 68%.