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Paul Starkey v Tony Stewart (Wed 26 Jun 2013)

Match won by Tony Stewart. Result: 16-14,13-15,3-15,10-15.

Starting level for Paul Starkey: 1,324, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Tony Stewart: 2,251, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Tony Stewart to win as he is currently playing 70% better than Paul Starkey.

Tony Stewart won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tony Stewart played 30% better than Paul Starkey in this match.

As Tony Stewart has played below his allowed range at 1,793, his level reduction is 4.1% before damping. On the assumption that Tony Stewart would normally have been playing at level 2,079 (based on typical behaviour), Paul Starkey played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.1% and 7.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tony Stewart changes to -2.8% and Paul Starkey changes to +7.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tony Stewart becomes -2.1% and for Paul Starkey becomes +4.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Tony Stewart is -1.3% and for Paul Starkey is +3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tony Stewart: 84%, Paul Starkey: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tony Stewart: 74%, Paul Starkey: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Starkey: 1,362, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Tony Stewart: 2,218, level confidence: 74%.