Paula Shepherd v Claudia Smith (Mon 06 Dec 2010)
Match won by Claudia Smith. Result: 20-18,14-16,21-23,9-15.
Starting level for
Paula Shepherd:
287, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for
Claudia Smith:
396, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Claudia Smith to win as he is currently playing
38% better than Paula Shepherd.
Claudia Smith won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Claudia Smith played
21% better than Paula Shepherd in this match.
As Claudia Smith has played below his allowed range at 357, his level reduction is 3% before damping. On the assumption that Claudia Smith would normally have been playing at level 383 (based on typical behaviour), Paula Shepherd played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.1%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.5% and 4.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Claudia Smith changes to -1.6% and Paula Shepherd changes to +4.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Claudia Smith becomes -1.6% and for Paula Shepherd becomes +3.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Claudia Smith is -1.2% and for Paula Shepherd is +2.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Claudia Smith: 84%, Paula Shepherd: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Claudia Smith: 79%, Paula Shepherd: 62%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Paula Shepherd:
294, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Claudia Smith:
391, level confidence: 79%.