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Keith Timms v Simon Evans (Thu 27 Jun 2013)

Match won by Keith Timms. Result: 11-5,11-1,11-0.

Starting level for Keith Timms: 5,970, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Simon Evans: 3,613, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing 65% better than Simon Evans.

Keith Timms won all of the games and 85% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 450% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Timms played 450% better than Simon Evans in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keith Timms actually played at a level of 10,892 and Simon Evans at a level of 1,980. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 82% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 60% and 60% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Timms changes to +60% and Simon Evans changes to -45%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Timms becomes +15% and for Simon Evans becomes -14%.

Given Keith Timms's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.5% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Keith Timms is +9.1% and for Simon Evans is -8.6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Simon Evans is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Timms: 81%, Simon Evans: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Timms: 45%, Simon Evans: 49%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Keith Timms: 6,503, level confidence: 45%.
Final level for Simon Evans: 3,462, level confidence: 49%.