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Jonathan Maloney v Joshua Ryan (Thu 27 Jun 2013)

Match won by Jonathan Maloney. Result: 11-7,11-13,11-4,11-8.

Starting level for Jonathan Maloney: 5,610, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joshua Ryan: 3,357, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Jonathan Maloney to win as he is currently playing 67% better than Joshua Ryan.

Jonathan Maloney won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jonathan Maloney played 29% better than Joshua Ryan in this match.

As Jonathan Maloney has played below his allowed range at 4,515, his level reduction is 4.2% before damping. On the assumption that Jonathan Maloney would normally have been playing at level 5,204 (based on typical behaviour), Joshua Ryan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.2% and 7.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jonathan Maloney changes to -3.2% and Joshua Ryan changes to +7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jonathan Maloney becomes -1.8% and for Joshua Ryan becomes +3.2%.

Given Jonathan Maloney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.8% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Jonathan Maloney is -1.1% and for Joshua Ryan is +2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jonathan Maloney: 87%, Joshua Ryan: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jonathan Maloney: 77%, Joshua Ryan: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jonathan Maloney: 5,540, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Joshua Ryan: 3,422, level confidence: 79%.