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Gary Slater v Steve King (Tue 02 Jul 2013)

Match won by Steve King. Result: 10-15,8-15,9-15.

Starting level for Gary Slater: 958, level confidence: 39%.
Starting level for Steve King: 855, level confidence: 10%.
Gary Slater to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Steve King.

Steve King won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve King played 67% better than Gary Slater in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve King actually played at a level of 1,168 and Gary Slater at a level of 701. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve King changes to +34% and Gary Slater changes to -6.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve King becomes +17.6% and for Gary Slater becomes -5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Steve King is +11% and for Gary Slater is -3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve King: 32%, Gary Slater: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve King: 23%, Gary Slater: 46%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gary Slater: 927, level confidence: 46%.
Final level for Steve King: 951, level confidence: 23%.