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Richard Carr v Tony Stewart (Tue 02 Jul 2013)

Match won by Richard Carr. Result: 15-12,16-14,17-15.

Starting level for Richard Carr: 2,685, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tony Stewart: 2,218, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Richard Carr to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Tony Stewart.

Richard Carr won all of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Carr played 30% better than Tony Stewart in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard Carr actually played at a level of 2,778 and Tony Stewart at a level of 2,144. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Carr changes to +2.7% and Tony Stewart changes to -3.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Carr becomes +1.9% and for Tony Stewart becomes -2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Richard Carr is +1.2% and for Tony Stewart is -1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Carr: 92%, Tony Stewart: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Carr: 89%, Tony Stewart: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richard Carr: 2,714, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Tony Stewart: 2,182, level confidence: 82%.