SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Simba Mugomba v Dominic Webster (Tue 07 Dec 2010)

Match won by Dominic Webster. Result: 11-15,9-15,10-15.

Starting level for Simba Mugomba: 1,568, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Dominic Webster: 1,389, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Simba Mugomba to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Dominic Webster.

Dominic Webster won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dominic Webster played 52% better than Simba Mugomba in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dominic Webster actually played at a level of 1,817 and Simba Mugomba at a level of 1,198. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dominic Webster changes to +21% and Simba Mugomba changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dominic Webster becomes +10% and for Simba Mugomba becomes -13%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Dominic Webster is +7.5% and for Simba Mugomba is -9.2%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Simba Mugomba is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dominic Webster: 94%, Simba Mugomba: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dominic Webster: 72%, Simba Mugomba: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simba Mugomba: 1,491, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Dominic Webster: 1,491, level confidence: 72%.