Trudy Chalkley v Reuben Wilkinson (Tue 07 Dec 2010)
Match won by Reuben Wilkinson. Result: 15-5,17-19,11-15,2-15.
Starting level for
Trudy Chalkley:
780, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for
Reuben Wilkinson:
907, level confidence: 49%.
Reuben Wilkinson to win as he is currently playing
16% better than Trudy Chalkley.
Reuben Wilkinson won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Reuben Wilkinson played
23% better than Trudy Chalkley in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Reuben Wilkinson actually played at a level of
934 and Trudy Chalkley at a level of
757. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Reuben Wilkinson changes to +2.8% and Trudy Chalkley changes to -2.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Reuben Wilkinson becomes +2.8% and for Trudy Chalkley becomes -2.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Reuben Wilkinson is +2.1% and for Trudy Chalkley is -2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Reuben Wilkinson: 70%, Trudy Chalkley: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Reuben Wilkinson: 68%, Trudy Chalkley: 69%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Trudy Chalkley:
764, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Reuben Wilkinson:
924, level confidence: 68%.