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Dave McMahon v Tony Rumbold (Wed 08 Dec 2010)

Match won by Dave McMahon. Result: 15-12,15-8,10-15,15-13.

Starting level for Dave McMahon: 1,751, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Tony Rumbold: 1,671, level confidence: 29%.
Dave McMahon to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Tony Rumbold.

Dave McMahon won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave McMahon played 22% better than Tony Rumbold in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dave McMahon actually played at a level of 1,886 and Tony Rumbold at a level of 1,551. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave McMahon changes to +3.3% and Tony Rumbold changes to -7.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave McMahon becomes +2.5% and for Tony Rumbold becomes -4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Dave McMahon is +1.9% and for Tony Rumbold is -3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave McMahon: 81%, Tony Rumbold: 54%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave McMahon: 75%, Tony Rumbold: 50%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dave McMahon: 1,782, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Tony Rumbold: 1,617, level confidence: 50%.