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Mike Guest v Wayne Davidson (Wed 08 Dec 2010)

Match won by Wayne Davidson. Result: 14-16,8-15,3-15.

Starting level for Mike Guest: 1,319, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Wayne Davidson: 1,583, level confidence: 57%.
Wayne Davidson to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Mike Guest.

Wayne Davidson won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 84% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Wayne Davidson played 84% better than Mike Guest in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Wayne Davidson actually played at a level of 1,960 and Mike Guest at a level of 1,065. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Wayne Davidson changes to +22% and Mike Guest changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Wayne Davidson becomes +9.8% and for Mike Guest becomes -8.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Wayne Davidson is +7.4% and for Mike Guest is -6.1%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mike Guest is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Wayne Davidson: 76%, Mike Guest: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Wayne Davidson: 61%, Mike Guest: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Guest: 1,254, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Wayne Davidson: 1,697, level confidence: 61%.