Alan Cook v Daniel Wolfson (Wed 08 Dec 2010)
Match won by Daniel Wolfson. Result: 7-15,3-15,15-11,15-11,10-15.
Starting level for
Alan Cook:
1,473, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Daniel Wolfson:
1,869, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Daniel Wolfson to win as he is currently playing
27% better than Alan Cook.
Daniel Wolfson won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel Wolfson played
16% better than Alan Cook in this match.
As Daniel Wolfson has played below his allowed range at 1,750, his level reduction is 2.4% before damping. On the assumption that Daniel Wolfson would normally have been playing at level 1,834 (based on typical behaviour), Alan Cook played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.6%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.1% and 3.2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daniel Wolfson changes to -1.9% and Alan Cook changes to +3.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daniel Wolfson becomes -1.5% and for Alan Cook becomes +2.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Daniel Wolfson is -1.1% and for Alan Cook is +2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel Wolfson: 85%, Alan Cook: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel Wolfson: 81%, Alan Cook: 76%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Alan Cook:
1,500, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Daniel Wolfson:
1,846, level confidence: 81%.