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Joe Weavers v Paul Cousins (Tue 09 Jul 2013)

Match won by Paul Cousins. Result: 11-15,10-15,10-15.

Starting level for Joe Weavers: 1,771, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for Paul Cousins: 2,144, level confidence: 68%.
Paul Cousins to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Joe Weavers.

Paul Cousins won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Cousins played 48% better than Joe Weavers in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Cousins actually played at a level of 2,374 and Joe Weavers at a level of 1,600. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Cousins changes to +6.3% and Joe Weavers changes to -9.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Cousins becomes +3.4% and for Joe Weavers becomes -5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Paul Cousins is +2.2% and for Joe Weavers is -3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Cousins: 83%, Joe Weavers: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Cousins: 75%, Joe Weavers: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joe Weavers: 1,713, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Paul Cousins: 2,189, level confidence: 75%.