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Steve Currie v Paul Green (Tue 09 Jul 2013)

Match won by Paul Green. Result: 3-15,5-15,13-15.

Starting level for Steve Currie: 1,760, level confidence: 39%.
Starting level for Paul Green: 2,433, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Paul Green to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Steve Currie.

Paul Green won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Green played 114% better than Steve Currie in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Green actually played at a level of 3,029 and Steve Currie at a level of 1,414. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Green changes to +10.3% and Steve Currie changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Green becomes +4.7% and for Steve Currie becomes -9.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Paul Green is +3.1% and for Steve Currie is -5.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Green: 88%, Steve Currie: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Green: 71%, Steve Currie: 50%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steve Currie: 1,662, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Paul Green: 2,504, level confidence: 71%.