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Dan Easton v Rob McGuchan (Tue 09 Jul 2013)

Match won by Dan Easton. Result: 15-10,15-4,15-10.

Starting level for Dan Easton: 2,158, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rob McGuchan: 1,598, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Dan Easton to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Rob McGuchan.

Dan Easton won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan Easton played 88% better than Rob McGuchan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dan Easton actually played at a level of 2,543 and Rob McGuchan at a level of 1,356. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan Easton changes to +15% and Rob McGuchan changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan Easton becomes +6.6% and for Rob McGuchan becomes -7.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Dan Easton is +4.3% and for Rob McGuchan is -4.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan Easton: 85%, Rob McGuchan: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan Easton: 73%, Rob McGuchan: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dan Easton: 2,247, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Rob McGuchan: 1,524, level confidence: 73%.