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Paul Craigen v David Lloyd (Tue 09 Jul 2013)

Match won by David Lloyd. Result: 11-15,15-10,15-5,8-15,13-15.

Starting level for Paul Craigen: 1,012, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Lloyd: 1,065, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
David Lloyd to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Paul Craigen.

David Lloyd won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Lloyd played 7% better than Paul Craigen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Lloyd actually played at a level of 1,072 and Paul Craigen at a level of 1,005. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Lloyd changes to +0.6% and Paul Craigen changes to -0.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Lloyd becomes +0.6% and for Paul Craigen becomes -0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for David Lloyd is +0.4% and for Paul Craigen is -0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Lloyd: 90%, Paul Craigen: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Lloyd: 90%, Paul Craigen: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Craigen: 1,006, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for David Lloyd: 1,067, level confidence: 90%.