SquashLevels calculations
Mark Oppen v Michael Herd (Tue 09 Jul 2013)
Match won by Michael Herd. Result: 15-11,4-15,5-15,10-15.
Starting level for
Mark Oppen:
1,731, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Michael Herd:
2,456, level confidence: 70%.
Michael Herd to win as he is currently playing
42% better than Mark Oppen.
Michael Herd won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Herd played
38% better than Mark Oppen in this match.
In this case, Michael Herd played at level 2,391 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Mark Oppen is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Herd: 83%, Mark Oppen: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Herd: 82%, Mark Oppen: 90%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mark Oppen:
1,728, level confidence: 90%.
Final level for Michael Herd:
2,452, level confidence: 82%.