Tom Moody v Paul Heath (Tue 09 Jul 2013)
Match won by Tom Moody. Result: 15-12,15-4,15-7.
Starting level for
Tom Moody:
1,322, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Paul Heath:
1,222, level confidence: 54%.
Tom Moody to win as he is currently playing
8% better than Paul Heath.
Tom Moody won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Moody played
96% better than Paul Heath in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Moody actually played at a level of
1,778 and Paul Heath at a level of
909. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Moody changes to +23% and Paul Heath changes to -33%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Moody becomes +11.1% and for Paul Heath becomes -16%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Tom Moody is +7.2% and for Paul Heath is -9.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Moody: 88%, Paul Heath: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Moody: 65%, Paul Heath: 55%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tom Moody:
1,416, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Paul Heath:
1,113, level confidence: 55%.