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Greg Proudfoot v Kachinga Kabwe (Thu 09 Dec 2010)

Match won by Kachinga Kabwe. Result: 15-12,9-15,10-15,9-15.

Starting level for Greg Proudfoot: 2,065, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Kachinga Kabwe: 2,680, level confidence: 10%.
Kachinga Kabwe to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Greg Proudfoot.

Kachinga Kabwe won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kachinga Kabwe played 27% better than Greg Proudfoot in this match.

In this case, Kachinga Kabwe played at level 2,633 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Greg Proudfoot is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kachinga Kabwe: 32%, Greg Proudfoot: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kachinga Kabwe: 31%, Greg Proudfoot: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Proudfoot: 2,062, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Kachinga Kabwe: 2,676, level confidence: 31%.