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Tony Stewart v Mark Dunn (Wed 10 Jul 2013)

Match won by Mark Dunn. Result: 8-15,15-8,9-15,8-15.

Starting level for Tony Stewart: 2,134, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Dunn: 2,501, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Mark Dunn to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Tony Stewart.

Mark Dunn won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Dunn played 27% better than Tony Stewart in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Dunn actually played at a level of 2,608 and Tony Stewart at a level of 2,046. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Dunn changes to +4% and Tony Stewart changes to -3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Dunn becomes +2.5% and for Tony Stewart becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Mark Dunn is +1.6% and for Tony Stewart is -1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Dunn: 86%, Tony Stewart: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Dunn: 83%, Tony Stewart: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tony Stewart: 2,097, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Mark Dunn: 2,537, level confidence: 83%.