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Chris Bhatt v Grant Kleiner (Wed 10 Jul 2013)

Match won by Chris Bhatt. Result: 15-7,9-15,17-15,13-15,16-14.

Starting level for Chris Bhatt: 1,764, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Grant Kleiner: 1,541, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Chris Bhatt to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Grant Kleiner.

Chris Bhatt won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Bhatt played 9% better than Grant Kleiner in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Bhatt actually played at a level of 1,721 and Grant Kleiner at a level of 1,579. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Bhatt changes to -2.3% and Grant Kleiner changes to +2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Bhatt becomes -1.8% and for Grant Kleiner becomes +1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2013' so the adjustment for Chris Bhatt is -1.2% and for Grant Kleiner is +1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Bhatt: 82%, Grant Kleiner: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Bhatt: 80%, Grant Kleiner: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Bhatt: 1,741, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Grant Kleiner: 1,555, level confidence: 86%.