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Simon Maxen v Matt Potter (Thu 09 Dec 2010)

Match won by Matt Potter. Result: 6-15,12-15,5-15.

Starting level for Simon Maxen: 1,698, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Matt Potter: 3,280, level confidence: 67%.
Matt Potter to win as he is currently playing 93% better than Simon Maxen.

Matt Potter won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt Potter played 96% better than Simon Maxen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matt Potter actually played at a level of 3,301 and Simon Maxen at a level of 1,687. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 0.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt Potter changes to +0.3% and Simon Maxen changes to -0.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt Potter becomes +0.2% and for Simon Maxen becomes -0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Matt Potter is 0% and for Simon Maxen is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt Potter: 82%, Simon Maxen: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt Potter: 81%, Simon Maxen: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Maxen: 1,691, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Matt Potter: 3,281, level confidence: 81%.